I did this last year. I ended up getting ~14 out of 16 right. I don’t think I’ll do as well this year, because it seems like it’ll either go heavily the way of The King’s Speech, which has a LOT of the recent momentum, or, it’ll go with The Social Network, the film that ran away with all the early awards, including, for what it’s worth [not much], sweeping the Golden Globes.

I’ve omitted a few categories I have no real idea about, but the full list of nominees and awards can be found here.

KEY:

What I *predict* will win – italics

What I *want* to win – bold

What ended up winning – red

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”
• James Franco in “127 Hours”

 Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech”

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone”
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech”
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” 
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

Achievement in directing

• “Black Swan”
• “The Fighter”
• “The King’s Speech”
• “The Social Network”
• “True Grit”

Adapted screenplay

• “127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight)
• “The Social Network”
• “Toy Story 3”
• “True Grit”
• “Winter’s Bone”

Original screenplay**

• “Another Year”
• “The Fighter”
• “Inception”
• “The Kids Are All Right”
• “The King’s Speech”

**I really hope I’m wrong about this!

Best motion picture of the year 

• “Black Swan”
• “The Fighter”
• “Inception”
• “The Kids Are All Right”
• “The King’s Speech”
• “127 Hours”
• “The Social Network”
• “Toy Story 3”
• “True Grit”
• “Winter’s Bone”

Best documentary feature

• “Exit through the Gift Shop”
• “Gasland” 
• “Inside Job”
• “Restrepo”
• “Waste Land”

Achievement in cinematography

• “Black Swan”
• “Inception”
• “The King’s Speech”
• “The Social Network”
• “True Grit”

Achievement in film editing*

• “Black Swan”
• “The Fighter”
• “The King’s Speech”
• “127 Hours”
• “The Social Network”

*Where the hell is Inception?!

Achievement in sound editing

• “Inception”
• “Toy Story 3”
• “Tron: Legacy”
• “True Grit”
• “Unstoppable”

Achievement in visual effects

• “Alice in Wonderland”
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
• “Hereafter”
• “Inception”
• “Iron Man 2”

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

• “How to Train Your Dragon”
• “Inception”
• “The King’s Speech”
• “127 Hours”
• “The Social Network”

Best animated feature film of the year

• “How to Train Your Dragon”
• “The Illusionist”
• “Toy Story 3”

Achievement in art direction

• “Alice in Wonderland”
• “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
• “Inception”
• “The King’s Speech”
• “True Grit”

UPDATE:

Well, there you have it. I picked The Social Network and it went the way of The King’s Speech. Guess I shouldn’t have bet against the Director’s Guild awards and its penchant for predicting the Oscar winner.

I’m pretty surprised, and disappointed in the AMPAS. The cliché of Hollywood loving a happy ending shines through yet again. Whatever I had against The Social Network, it was pretty darn solid in every way, and it wasn’t the safe, feel-good option.

13 out of 16. Honestly, I couldn’t justify predicting Alice in Wonderland, even with it’s decent success rate with Art Direction awards this year; it was just too horrible a film for me to italicise.

The only pleasant surprise? Inception winning for Cinematography, although some might feel that The Academy totally has something against Roger Deakins! Every second of True Grit was framed so beautifully, I thought he deserved it. Here’s a short clip of some of Deakins work on True Grit.